Cheltenham Festival 15 Mar 2011 - Day 1
by NRL Racing, March 2011
Our guide to day 1 at the Cheltenham Festival 2011.
RACE 1
The Festival starts off as usual with the 2 mile novice hurdle and like last year when we had Dunguib as the hot favourite after winning the previous seasons bumper only to fail on the day.This year we have CUE CARD whose hurdle form this year as been exceptional for a novice running Menorah (Champion Hurdle fav) to 4lengths off levels and he ticks all the boxes and sets the standard.
But recent years have shown that this is far from a shoo in for the favourite, Nicky Henderson has 3 runners all unexposed but all used to winning on the soft. We as usual have the irish input headed by ZAIDPOUR, but this half brother to Zaynar has shown some unwanted tendancies and I wouldn’t want to be on him coming up the hill.The interesting irish runner to me is MAGENS STAR who has chosen this instead of the Mares race and gets a handy 7lb. Another interesting contender who has bypassed the triumph is the 4yr old MARSH WARBLER whose juvenile form holds up very well.Finally we must give a mention to Paul Nicholls runner AL FEROF who chased home Cue Card in the bumper last year and there is no reason why he isn’t within 8 lenghths again.
To recap CUE CARD should win but to me the value comes from MARSH WARBLER, AL FEROF and MAGENS STAR.
RACE 2
The arkle for the best 2 mile novice chasers where MEDERMIT heads the market, he has impressed on his last 2 runs and I expect a big run again. GHIZAO would probably prefer softer ground whilst FINIANS RAINBOW has been nothing better than economical in winning his prep races but he did run a big race in the novice hurdle last year and has to be respected. OF the others the irish contender REALT DUBH has most experience but might lack the class whilst its interesting the Philip Hobbs has chosen this instead of the 21/2mile race for CAPTAIN CHRIS who ran a big race behind Medermit last time and its definitely a race you need to be staying on.
To recap MEDERMIT to beat CAPTAIN CHRIS and FINIANS RAINBOW
RACE 3
19 runners for this 3m + chase headed by BLAZING BAILEY who has been a revelation this year but would almost certainly prefer softer ground and has also to contend with a big hike in the weights. Last years winner CHIEF DAN GEORGE ran a fine prep race 10 days ago and can go well again given a similar light campaign. SUNNYHILLBOY and GREAT ENDEAVOUR should again finish close but i prefer the former over the longer trip than they met in previously. Another serious horse who loves
Cheltenham is RAZOR ROYALE who has been given a light campaign and was a creditable 6th last time despite never travelling or jumping with any fluency.
Others of interest are firstly, one of the gamest mares in training CAROLES LEGACY, but maybe this extended distance will just test her stamina, and KING FONTAINE, very impressive earlier in the season because getting bogged down at Haydock last time but should relish the better ground but a ratings hike of 13lb may be just too much.
To recap RAZOR ROYALE to beat SUNNYHILLBOY and CAROLES LEGACY.
RACE 4
The Champion Hurdle where unfortunately Binocular is a late absentee, I personally would have been against him as i feel he was flattered the previous year as it was a weak race. Last years 2 novice winners MENORAH and PEDDLERS CROSS head the betting, they both have done nothing wrong this year and I slightly favour Menorah of the 2 but am slightly concerned with Philip Hobbs yard not firing.
The main Irish hopes are HURRICANE FLY who has been outstanding in Ireland but as yet to run at Cheltenham and may just fail to get up the hill, and DUNGUIB, 3rd in the novice last year and most be discounted at your peril although would need to sharpen up his jumping.
The horse I really fancy and has been my Ante Post bet since Christmas is OSCAR WHISKY who ran a big race in the novice last year only beaten 3lengths by Menorah despite his inexperience and has really impressed this. I also feel MILLE CHIEF”s victory over Celestial Halo last time was underrated as the two pulled well clear and is the maimn danger.
To recap OSCAR WHISKY to beat MILLE CHIEF in what is a very open Champion Hurdle.
RACE 5
The Cross Country race...aaarrgh. Not my favourite race usually provides an irish winner. My thought this year is that maybe its time for a new kid on the Block. POKER DE SIVOLA won at the festival last year and whilst Ferdy Murphy has had a quiet year he has earmarked this race for a long time, and with most of the irish runners in their veteran stage
I will be going with POKER DE SIVOLA.
RACE 6
The Mares Hurdle which has been dominated by QUEVAGA in the last 2 seasons and that master trainer Willie Mullins has again laid this one out again however this year there is a young pretender and what a fairytale it would be if SPARKY MAY for her trainer Paddy Rodford could win. She is a serious horse with a great engine and stays 3 miles. I expect forcing tactics to be used and if on song will take all the beating.
To recap i take SPARKY MAY to beat QUEVAGA.
RACE 7
The final race on day 1 is another competive handicap chase.Alot ot these are just short of the top and alot of the form sends mixed messages and being novices adds to its difficulty.
Here I look to Ireland and an up and coming trainer, Gordon Elliot who saddles THARAWAAT whose form is ultra consistent who had a simple task in a 3 horse race last time to put him spot on. Of the Others Nicholls DEFINITELY will need to sharpen up his jumping, but on his hurdles rating should be thereabouts, whilst ROUGHAM beat OSRIC last time and should be open to further improvement. The other interesting runner is TULLAMORE DEW who was placed in the handicap hurdle the previous year and ran Mamlock close last time.
To recap THARAWAAT to beat ROUGHAM, DEFINITELY AND TULLAMORE DEW.
- Cheltenham Festival 15
Mar 2011 Day 1
- Cheltenham Festival
16 Mar 2011 Day 2
- Cheltenham Festival
17 Mar 2011 Day 3
- Cheltenham Festival
18 Mar 2011 Day 4.
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